Travel for tourism and pleasure activities has become a distant dream of travel lovers and pleasure seekers since March 2020 with the massive outbreak and spread of Novel-Coronavirus all across the globe. The blanket cover over the tourism industry is not going to hurt only the travellers but millions of people also who depend massively on travel and tourism industry directly or indirectly. It is still unknown that when the things will get bounce back to normalcy. One thing is clear, the time takes to overcome the damage made by the Covid induced lockdown in all sectors will be longer than expected. Travel and hospitality industry is one of the sectors that has deeply tasted the bitterness of the pandemic. The developing countries are going to be the worst-hit in terms of loss of revenue as they depend travel and hospitality industry heavily. Kerala state in India is going to lose massively the income from tourism at least in the couple of years. It would not be insignificant as Kerala accommodates over one million international tourists for the past few years and generate around Rs 90 billion directly. Domestic tourism helps the economy of Kerala even more significantly as over 13 million domestic tourists have arrived each year for the past few years with the direct contribution of around Rs 200 billion. Total revenue generated by the tourism sector as a whole in Kerala in 2018 was Rs 363 billion as per Kerala Tourism Statistics 2018. One-fourth of the total employment (direct, indirect and induced) is contributed by tourism sector in Kerala as well according to the report of Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR), Kerala. How could this abrupt loss of income and job affect various sectors that are beneficiaries and dependents of tourism in Kerala?
Break of economic chain and inevitable economic crisis
With the pandemic induced lockdown in place all across the state ever since late March this year with varying intensities, the chain of economic activities is broken inevitably as just happened elsewhere in the world. The supply chain has been disrupted as people were asked stay home. Demand has sharply slowed down further from the already low level in the pre-pandemic period. Unemployment rate has shoot up as industries and services were forced to shut. The same has happened severely to the travel and hospitality industry especially in the state of Kerala. The damage made to the economy of Kerala by Covid-19 induced months long lockdown is unimaginable as around 10 per cent of its state income (GSDP) and 10 percent of employment (direct only) are contributed by tourism sector.
Crisis-hit transportation and hospitality industries
Lockdowns restricted the movement of people as they are forced to stay home or not allowed to take themselves out for non-essential purposes. This has severely affected the transportation industry. Two months later the commencement of lockdown in Kerala in late May 2020, people were allowed to occupy the public roads on limited basis with private vehicles except in containment zones. But people were forced to follow social distancing to contain the pandemic. Tourist destinations were shut as well. All these have minimised plying of vehicles for pleasure and entertainment purposes. A large chunk of auto-taxi drivers and owners who largely depend tourism industry for livelihood fell in to the depth of distress. Public transportation through roadways was just allowed with maintaining standard operating procedure (SOP). Train transportation was almost remained standstill as only a few special and ‘shramik’ trains were allowed to operate. Normal international flights were stopped since 22 March in India and decision to open Indian sky for the normal international flights is yet to make. International borders were strictly blocked for international travellers except for government-led evacuation. Nations have temporarily altered their visa rules as well considering the pandemic situation. Tourist taxis are severely hit as tourism especially international tourism has been almost zero for the past few months. Above all, external benefits of the travel industry spread over numerous sectors of the economy have virtually ground to a halt. Street vendors lost the business, shops in the public vicinity especially in transportation hubs hardly had the business in the lockdown days. Restaurants were badly hit as dine in was not allowed and tourists are off the destinations as well. Hoteliers virtually lost their entire business as people were restricted from travel and destinations remained shut. Thousands of accommodation units all across Kerala of all kind and their staffers were hit badly as tourists don’t turn out due to travel restrictions and social distancing norms in place. Overall, Kerala’s one-fourth of the active workforce, who depend the travel and tourism industry directly and indirectly, has been hit severely as they became jobless with the pandemic induced months long lockdown.
Loss of hospitality business and dampened economy of Kerala
The potential loss of tourism revenue in 2020 is estimated as per the 2018 data of tourism arrivals and tourism income. However, the potential tourist footfalls in Kerala in 2020 is estimated as per the growth rates of tourist arrivals for the past five years since 2014. First two months and a fortnight of March this year is considered as normal business months. Although lockdown was imposed in Kerala just on 24 March, travel restricting instructions were already aired almost in the middle of the month. Thus latter half of March and rest of 2020 is considered as zero tourism period. Total tourism revenue that would have been generated through direct and indirect ways is Rs 411.06 billion in 2020 if it was a normal year as against Rs 363 billion in 2018. In line with these considerations, it is estimated that income that would have generated by Kerala’s tourism industry directly and indirectly in 2020 since mid-March will be Rs 321.5 billion. So to speak, Rs 321.5 billion will be the total loss of income from tourism industry in 2020 until and unless a vaccine is developed so quickly as against the expectations of the science world. The direct earnings that could have lost due to the pandemic induced restrictions almost since mid-March 2020 from the tourists are estimated to be Rs 237 billion. However, it is to be noted that shock to the tourism economy may have possibly subsided as Jan-March period already might have witnessed higher tourist turnout especially foreign tourists.
The loss of income could affect laymen more badly as tourism industry is labour intensive where man power fuels the industry mainly. All the tourism initiatives are run mostly by manpower. Thousands find livelihood in the destination premises as well. Most of this is in unorganised sector. As per the CPPR study in 2018, tourism sector of Kerala is responsible for one-fourth of its total employment including direct, indirect and induced jobs. Distress, however, could be deepened as the people, who feed their family with their daily earning, lose job.
How do we see prospects of the tourism industry to get bounce back?
Almost all sectors of the economy are expected to take longer time to get back to pre-pandemic level. The travel and hospitality industry is to take even longer duration to bounce back the things as travel for non-essential purpose and social gatherings are strictly discouraged. The restrictions are expected to stay here till a vaccine is developed and people are vaccinated. According to WHO and health experts, a vaccine which has transparently completed all trial phases is not likely anytime soon. Even if a vaccine is developed soon with maintaining all the WHO protocol, longer time will be taken for getting the people inoculated in a country like India. Nonetheless, Kerala’s prospects of tourism industry are even brighter than many other destinations as the way Keralites manage Covid-19, using its stronger public health system coupled with people’s higher health awareness, has been praiseworthy. It is even well recognised at the international level.
Comments
Post a Comment